Iran's IRGC or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a new confirmed missile, drone, or naval strike against a US military asset, base, or allied vessel in the Middle East within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 61% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-28.

Iran IRGC actor intelligence describes active escalation mode following loss of senior naval leadership with explicit threats against US infrastructure; Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), and Hormuz escalation probability stands at 67%.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 281d ago
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will conduct a confirmed prisoner exchange or announce a temporary humanitarian corridor/local ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.

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The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law by January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?' as YES.

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OPEC+ will announce a new production cut at or ahead of its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

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North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

Iran's IRGC or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a new confirmed missile, drone, or naval strike against a US military asset, base, or allied vessel in the Middle East within 14 days.

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