Russia and the United States will publicly announce a negotiated ceasefire framework or settlement terms for the Ukraine war within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 23% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows 50% sufficient bargaining range, 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement', bullish 78% confidence, though policy_action/geopolitical base rate is only ~20% hit rate, tempering confidence

Probability: 23%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a US military base or asset in the Middle East within 14 days

geopolitical71%EXPIRED

The Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the federal funds rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical21%

North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic or submarine-launched missile test within 30 days.

geopolitical76%

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Israel will close its airspace (in whole or in part) by September 30, 2026, consistent with the wartime regime, zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure, and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability compounding audience-cost pressure ahead of the October 7 anniversary window.

geopolitical17%

Russia and the United States will publicly announce a negotiated ceasefire framework or settlement terms for the Ukraine war within 30 days

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