Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a US military base or asset in the Middle East within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 71% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.

IRGC actor intelligence flags explicit threats against US corporate/educational/military infrastructure amid active wartime escalation and 67% Hormuz escalation probability; distinct from already-covered Israel-strike and OPEC-emergency-meeting predictions

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and the United States will publicly announce a negotiated ceasefire framework or settlement terms for the Ukraine war within 30 days

geopolitical23%

The Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the federal funds rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical21%

North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic or submarine-launched missile test within 30 days.

geopolitical76%

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Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a US military base or asset in the Middle East within 14 days

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