North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic or submarine-launched missile test within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 76% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Nash/Bayesian DPRK Provocation Cycle equilibrium (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence) plus signal convergence around DPRK military posture escalation in actor intelligence updates.

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the federal funds rate at its next scheduled FOMC meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical21%

Russia and the United States will publicly announce a negotiated ceasefire framework or settlement terms for the Ukraine war within 30 days

geopolitical23%

Iran-aligned forces will conduct a confirmed attack on a US military base or asset in the Middle East within 14 days

geopolitical71%EXPIRED

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North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic or submarine-launched missile test within 30 days.

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