Palladium futures (PA) will trade above $1,100/oz on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Russian supply concerns from prolonged Ukraine conflict timeline (September 2026) and semiconductor demand from Taiwan tensions create supply-demand imbalance

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.127.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Bayesian analysis showing 50% bargaining range but 36% escalation probability with conflict timeline to September 2026. Russia supplies 40% of global palladium. Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives semiconductor hedging demand. Compound probability: P(Russian supply disruption concerns) * P(palladium spike | supply concerns + semiconductor demand) = 0.55 * 0.82 = 0.45

Probability

36%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 25188d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.