HITBrier 0.661

Palladium futures (PA=F) traded above $1,200 on every trading day during the evidence period. Sample prices: March 16: $1,584.50, March 17: $1,614, March 31: $1,471.20, April 14: $1,579.40. Lowest price in the period was $1,341.30 on March 26, still above $1,200. Required: at least 2 days above $1,200. Actual: All 22 trading days above $1,200. Threshold clearly met.

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Market

LONG correctPA

Palladium futures will trade above $1,200 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russian supply sanctions tighten during wartime commodity disruptions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 19% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.661.

Derived from: Live Intelligence on Sanctions Russia China Iran + Russia-Ukraine War Endgame showing 36% escalation probability + Wartime regime detection requiring commodity supply disruption modeling + Industrial metals supply chain stress

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 14168d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Palladium futures (PA) will trade above $1,100/oz on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Russian supply concerns from prolonged Ukraine conflict timeline (September 2026) and semiconductor demand from Taiwan tensions create supply-demand imbalance

market36%MISS

Palladium futures will gain more than 12% within 14 days as semiconductor supply chain disruption fears from Taiwan gray zone escalation create industrial metals shortage premium

market29%PARTIAL

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Palladium futures will trade above $1,200 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russian supply sanctions tighten during wartime commodity disruptions

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