HITBrier 0.213

Corn futures (ZC=F) traded above $450 per bushel on multiple days within the evidence window. Specific days above $450: March 19 (high $470, close $469.75), March 20 (high $469.25), March 23 (high $473.75), March 24 (high $465.75), March 25 (high $468.5, close $467.25), March 26 (high $468.75, close $467), March 27 (high $470.5), March 30 (high $465.75), March 31 (high $462), April 1 (high $460), April 2 (high $460.5), April 6 (high $454.5), April 7 (high $455), April 15 (high $452, close $451.25), April 16 (high $452.75). Count: 15+ days above $450. Required: at least 2 days. 15 > 2, therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Market

LONG correctZC

Corn futures (ZC) will trade above $450 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime supply chain disruptions and Ukraine War Endgame scenario (36% escalation probability) threaten Black Sea grain exports

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 54% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.213.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows 36% escalation probability in Bayesian analysis, plus wartime regime requires modeling direct supply disruptions to agricultural exports from Black Sea region

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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