MISSBrier 0.552

DBA: March 19 close $26.97, April 18 close $26.92, return = -0.19%. SPY: March 19 close $659.80, April 18 close $710.14, return = +7.63%. Relative performance = DBA return - SPY return = -0.19% - 7.63% = -7.82%. DBA underperformed by 7.82%. Actual: -7.82%, Required: +2.5%, -7.82% < 2.5% therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Market

DBA vs SPY

Agricultural commodity ETF (DBA) will outperform SPY by at least 2.5% within 30 days as wartime regime supply chain disruptions and Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Bayesian equilibrium (78% confidence for negotiated settlement) create agricultural hedge demand

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 74% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.552.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Russia-Ukraine War Endgame with sufficient bargaining range (50%) but agricultural supply chains remain disrupted. Wartime regime classification supports commodity outperformance vs equities. DBA covered in existing predictions but not relative performance vs SPY.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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