MISSBrier 0.178

Wheat futures (ZW=F) never reached $6.50 during the evidence period. Prices were in cents, not dollars: March 11: 588.5 cents, highest point was 625 cents on March 31, April 10 close: 571 cents. Converting to dollars: highest = $6.25/bushel, well below target of $6.50. Required: at least 2 days above $6.50. Actual: 0 days above $6.50. 6.25 < 6.50 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Market

LONG wrongZW

Wheat futures (ZW) will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as shipping route uncertainty and Ukraine war extension scenarios disrupt grain supply expectations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.178.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Bayesian equilibrium showing 36% escalation probability with 50% bargaining range. Red Sea shipping crisis maintaining mixed outcomes. Global food security knowledge shows wheat reserves at 120 days coverage. Compound probability: P(supply disruption) * P(price spike | disruption) = 0.75 * 0.87 = 0.65

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$6.5

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Wheat futures will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border airstrikes disrupt regional grain logistics and OPEC+ production cuts drive agricultural input cost inflation

market35%MISS

Wheat futures will close above $6.00 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border conflict disrupts regional grain transit corridors

market33%HIT

Wheat futures will trade above $650 per bushel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as wartime supply disruptions compound with Black Sea shipping uncertainty and Iran's multi-wave missile campaign creates agricultural commodity hoarding behavior

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Wheat futures (ZW) will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as shipping route uncertainty and Ukraine war extension scenarios disrupt grain supply expectations

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