PARTIALBrier 0.333

Wheat futures (ZW=F) price history from March 30 to April 28, 2026: Highest daily close was $649.00 on April 28. Daily closes ranged from $571.00 (April 10) to $649.00 (April 28). No trading day reached the $700 target. Actual highest: $649.00, Required: $700.00, 649 < 700 therefore threshold NOT met. However, wheat did trend upward overall from ~$607 to $649, showing correct directional movement. News confirmed Black Sea shipping disruptions and Strait of Hormuz tensions affecting global food security during this period.

Resolved Apr 29, 2026

Market

LONG correctZW

Wheat futures will trade above $700 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Black Sea shipping routes face disruption from regional conflict escalation and fertilizer supply chains break down amid energy crisis

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 58% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-29. Brier score 0.333.

Derived from: WARTIME regime affecting multiple chokepoints. Russia-Ukraine War Endgame game theory shows 36% escalation probability. Historical parallel to 1973 oil embargo shows agricultural commodity spikes during energy crises. Strait of Hormuz closure affects fertilizer shipping routes. Actor intelligence shows sustained military operations affecting grain corridor.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 28154d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Wheat futures will trade above $650 per bushel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as wartime supply disruptions compound with Black Sea shipping uncertainty and Iran's multi-wave missile campaign creates agricultural commodity hoarding behavior

market70%PARTIAL

Wheat futures will close above $6.00 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border conflict disrupts regional grain transit corridors

market33%HIT

Wheat futures will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border airstrikes disrupt regional grain logistics and OPEC+ production cuts drive agricultural input cost inflation

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Wheat futures will trade above $700 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Black Sea shipping routes face disruption from regional conflict escalation and fertilizer supply chains break down amid energy crisis

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