MISSBrier 0.120

Wheat futures (ZW=F) historical data shows highest close during evidence window March 16 - April 15, 2026 was 625 cents ($6.25) on March 31. Daily analysis shows no closes above 650 cents ($6.50). Actual peak: $6.25, Required: $6.50. $6.25 < $6.50 therefore threshold NOT met. Price moved up from creation but insufficient to meet target.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

LONG wrongZW

Wheat futures will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border airstrikes disrupt regional grain logistics and OPEC+ production cuts drive agricultural input cost inflation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.120.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Pakistan Military conducting active cross-border airstrikes against Afghanistan with retaliatory strikes occurring. OPEC+ production cuts create energy cost pressure on agricultural inputs. 30-day timeframe shows best historical Brier score (0.212). Bayesian analysis shows Saudi production cuts vs US SPR releases equilibrium (90% probability, mixed market impact).

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Wheat futures will close above $6.00 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border conflict disrupts regional grain transit corridors

market33%HIT

Wheat futures (ZW) will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as shipping route uncertainty and Ukraine war extension scenarios disrupt grain supply expectations

market42%MISS

Wheat futures will trade above $650 per bushel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as wartime supply disruptions compound with Black Sea shipping uncertainty and Iran's multi-wave missile campaign creates agricultural commodity hoarding behavior

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Wheat futures will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border airstrikes disrupt regional grain logistics and OPEC+ production cuts drive agricultural input cost inflation

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture