PARTIALBrier 0.488

Wheat futures (ZW=F) prices during prediction window (Mar 29 to Apr 28, 2026): Started around 605 on Mar 29. Daily closes were: Mar 31: 616.25, Apr 1: 597.5, Apr 2: 598.25, Apr 6: 595.25, Apr 7: 598, Apr 8: 580.25, Apr 9: 574.5, Apr 10: 571, Apr 13: 582.25, Apr 14: 592, Apr 15: 593.75, Apr 16: 598.5, Apr 17: 591.25, Apr 20: 597, Apr 21: 605, Apr 22: 599.25, Apr 23: 610.75, Apr 24: 608.25, Apr 27: 621.5, Apr 28: 649. None of these daily closes exceeded $650/bushel. Required: Trade above $650 on at least 3 trading days. Actual: 0 trading days above $650, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct as wheat prices generally rose from ~605 to 649.

Resolved Apr 30, 2026

Market

LONG correctZW

Wheat futures will trade above $650 per bushel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as wartime supply disruptions compound with Black Sea shipping uncertainty and Iran's multi-wave missile campaign creates agricultural commodity hoarding behavior

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 70% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-30. Brier score 0.488.

Derived from: Active wartime regime with Iran conducting sustained missile campaigns (81+ documented strike waves per actor intelligence), shipping route disruptions affecting agricultural exports, and Russia-Ukraine War Endgame showing 36% escalation probability creating Black Sea supply uncertainty

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 28154d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Wheat futures will trade above $700 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Black Sea shipping routes face disruption from regional conflict escalation and fertilizer supply chains break down amid energy crisis

market58%PARTIAL

Wheat futures will close above $6.00 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border conflict disrupts regional grain transit corridors

market33%HIT

Wheat futures will trade above $6.50 per bushel on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border airstrikes disrupt regional grain logistics and OPEC+ production cuts drive agricultural input cost inflation

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Wheat futures will trade above $650 per bushel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as wartime supply disruptions compound with Black Sea shipping uncertainty and Iran's multi-wave missile campaign creates agricultural commodity hoarding behavior

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