MISSBrier 0.106

RUB/USD quote convention issue: The prediction stated 'weaken beyond 95.00' but current price is 0.012766 (April 9, 2026). This appears to be USD per RUB, not RUB per USD as claimed. During the evidence window (March 9 - April 8), RUB/USD ranged from 0.011611 to 0.012743, showing ruble strengthening from ~0.01263 to ~0.01274. The prediction target of 95.00 is inconsistent with market data format. Actual: 0.012766, Required: 95.0 - incompatible quote conventions.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Geopolitical

SHORT wrongRUB/USD

The Russian ruble (RUB/USD) will weaken beyond 95.00 within 30 days as Kremlin's strategic distance from Iran reduces energy coordination benefits while Ukraine war costs accelerate toward September 2026 parliamentary timeline

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.106.

Derived from: Russia Kremlin actor intelligence showing non-intervention in Middle East while expecting Ukraine conflict through September 2026. Loss of Iran coordination reduces energy leverage.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$95

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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