PARTIALBrier 0.467

USD/RUB peaked at 86.84 on March 19 but never reached 95.00 during the prediction window (March 19 to April 2). Daily highs: March 19: 86.84, March 20: 86.51, March 21: 83.91, March 22: 83.88, March 23: 84.50, March 24: 82.36, March 25: 81.32, March 26: 82.75, March 27: 82.27, March 28: 81.57, March 29: 81.50, March 30: 81.98, March 31: 81.78, April 1: 81.46, April 2: 80.82. Currency did weaken initially but reversed. Actual: 0 days above 95.00, Required: 4+ days, 0 < 4 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

LONG correctRUB

Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) will weaken above 95.00 on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame escalation probability (36%) and wartime regime energy market disruptions stress currency stability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 68% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.467.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Russia-Ukraine War Endgame has 36% escalation probability with Russia dominant type 'calculating' but under audience cost constraints. Wartime regime classification indicates direct supply disruption impact on energy exporters. Historical pattern shows RUB weakness during conflict escalation phases.

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The Russian Ruble (RUB) will weaken past 95 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as sanctions evasion costs increase and the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario with 70% confidence creates additional financial pressure

market72%MISS

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Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) will weaken above 95.00 on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame escalation probability (36%) and wartime regime energy market disruptions stress currency stability

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