MISSBrier 0.518

USD/RUB price data shows the ruble STRENGTHENED during the prediction window. Highest USD/RUB value was 86.83 on March 19, 2026, meaning 86.83 rubles per dollar. Required: >95 rubles per dollar on at least 2 days. Actual: Maximum 86.83, which is 8.17 points BELOW the 95 threshold. The ruble never weakened past 95; it remained stronger than required throughout the period. Direction was also incorrect - ruble strengthened from ~79 to current 78.56.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongRUB

The Russian Ruble (RUB) will weaken past 95 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as sanctions evasion costs increase and the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario with 70% confidence creates additional financial pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame game theory showing 'Russia chooses Negotiate from strength; US chooses Increase military aid' at 70% confidence, creating extended pressure on Russian financial system and currency

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$95

Regimetransitional

Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) will weaken above 95.00 on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame escalation probability (36%) and wartime regime energy market disruptions stress currency stability

market68%PARTIAL

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The Russian Ruble (RUB) will weaken past 95 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as sanctions evasion costs increase and the Russia-Ukraine War Endgame scenario with 70% confidence creates additional financial pressure

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