Russia and Ukraine will publicly announce a comprehensive ceasefire or peace framework agreement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 19% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows a 50% bargaining range (sufficient for agreement) and 91% probability of the 'negotiate from strength / push settlement' equilibrium (bullish, 78% confidence), though tempered against the historically low 20% base-rate hit rate for policy_action geopolitical predictions.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

Iran will impose new formal restrictions (fines, confiscation threats, or transit fees) on foreign tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, extending the confirmed pattern of harassment incidents.

geopolitical36%

China will announce a new retaliatory tariff, export control, or sanction measure targeting US companies or goods within 30 days.

geopolitical33%

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Russia and Ukraine will publicly announce a comprehensive ceasefire or peace framework agreement within 30 days.

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