The United States will announce a new export control or license restriction targeting Chinese semiconductor manufacturing equipment within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Bayesian US-China Trade War analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish 60% confidence), and prior confirmed actions (FCC covered-list restrictions, Xinjiang sanctions) establish a pattern of continued unilateral US economic deterrence measures under the fragile Taiwan Strait equilibrium.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran will impose new formal restrictions (fines, confiscation threats, or transit fees) on foreign tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, extending the confirmed pattern of harassment incidents.

geopolitical36%

The United States will announce a new export control or license restriction targeting Chinese semiconductor manufacturing equipment within 14 days.

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