Brazil will announce emergency commodity export restrictions or agricultural trade controls within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-05 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-04. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Wartime regime supply chain stress scenario and historical pattern of resource exporters implementing protectionist measures during global conflicts. Multiple geopolitical stress events in calendar (OPEC+ ministerial, G7) create policy window. Reference class: policy_action/geopolitical shows 29% hit rate.

Probability

25%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Jun 4117d ago

Made

May 5

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.