MISSBrier 0.125

Data-resolved: GD moved from 359.39 to 353.05 (-1.76%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 377.36. Target not reached. High was 362.39.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGD

General Dynamics (GD) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $377.36, 5% from $359.39 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.125.

80% overall escalation risk score spans Taiwan, Hormuz, DPRK and Russia-Ukraine flashpoints simultaneously (Erev Rosh Hashana/UN General Assembly convergence, intensity 5/5, defense sector flagged); defense-sector demand should benefit a diversified prime contractor not already covered by existing LMT/RTX predictions.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$377.36

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

General Dynamics (GD) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $371.59, 5% from $353.90 at creation)

market74%

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General Dynamics (GD) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $377.36, 5% from $359.39 at creation)

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