MISSBrier 0.064

Searched for Asian central bank emergency measures during evidence window (2026-05-02 to 2026-05-09). Found mentions of: 1) Rupiah near IDR 17,500/USD with questions about BI intervention being less aggressive (May 5), 2) Bank of Ghana losses discussion (May 8), 3) Brief yen spike with Iran escalation (May 4). None of these represent announced emergency liquidity measures or currency intervention by major Asian central banks. No emergency policy announcements found during the window.

Resolved May 9, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency liquidity measures or currency intervention within 7 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-02 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-09. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium shows 53% escalation probability with fragile stability at 25% Fearon bargaining range. Combined with confirmed Hormuz disruptions creating regional financial stress. Base rate for policy_action/geopolitical is 29% but wartime regime and multiple chokepoint stress increase probability.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: May 9143d ago
Made: May 2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Japan will announce at least one emergency defense procurement measure or security partnership expansion within 14 days

geopolitical25%HIT

Russia will announce at least one diplomatic initiative or ceasefire proposal within 30 days

geopolitical25%HIT

At least one OPEC+ member country will announce emergency production capacity review or supply contingency activation within 14 days

geopolitical25%MISS

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At least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency liquidity measures or currency intervention within 7 days

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