MISSBrier 0.161

Data-resolved: NOC moved from 514.98 to 527.39 (2.41%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 540.73. Target not reached. High was 536.62.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctNOC

Northrop Grumman (NOC) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $540.73, 5% from $514.98 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.161.

80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score, Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium, and DPRK provocation cycle Nash equilibrium collectively support elevated defense-sector demand pricing, an uncovered instrument distinct from GD/RTX/LMT already tracked.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$540.73

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defense-sector demand builds around the Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium and North Korea provocation cycle (target above $559.03, 6% from $527.39 at creation)

market63%

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Northrop Grumman (NOC) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $540.73, 5% from $514.98 at creation)

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