HITBrier 0.283

Early-confirmed: CRWD hit target above 223.76 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 235.38 (started at 213.10).

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctCRWD

CrowdStrike (CRWD) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $223.76, 5% from $213.10 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 47% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.283.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, China gray-zone escalation/US economic deterrence) elevates cyber-defense demand as a hedging trade against tech-sector conflict exposure.

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$223.76

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as recent sharp gains give way to profit-taking under the broader confirmed risk-off regime and wartime volatility (target below $223.61, 5% from $235.38).

market85%

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CrowdStrike (CRWD) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $223.76, 5% from $213.10 at creation)

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