Agricultural commodity ETF DBA will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $30.00, 4% from $28.85 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.119.

Wartime risk-off regime and elevated Russia-Ukraine escalation probability (36% per Bayesian model) sustain a grain/agri supply risk premium despite the longer-term 'agreement possible' equilibrium.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.