MISSBrier 0.181

Search within evidence window (2026-03-25 to 2026-04-24) found limited results. General articles about global order and Indonesia-Russia meeting, but no specific announcements from major European banks about increased provisions for geopolitical risk or credit loss reserves during the prediction period.

Resolved Apr 24, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 major European banks will announce increased provisions for geopolitical risk or credit loss reserves within 30 days as wartime regime transition forces financial sector risk reassessment

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-25 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.181.

Derived from: Current wartime regime classification with multiple zero-Nash equilibrium scenarios creating banking sector exposure to credit and operational risks. European banks particularly exposed to energy price volatility and regional conflict spillovers. Reference class policy_action/geopolitical 69% hit rate but applying red team discount for potential pattern overinterpretation and regime classification uncertainty.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 24175d ago
Made: Mar 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Turkey will impose at least one new shipping restriction or transit fee increase for Bosphorus Strait passage within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness creates strategic chokepoint leverage opportunities

geopolitical43%MISS

Turkey will announce at least one major naval deployment or Bosphorus Strait security measure within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness escalates and Middle East shipping routes face sustained pressure from active Iran conflict

geopolitical62%MISS

Turkey will announce at least one major policy change regarding Bosphorus Strait shipping regulations or transit fees within 14 days as Hormuz disruption increases strategic value of alternative routes

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At least 3 major European banks will announce increased provisions for geopolitical risk or credit loss reserves within 30 days as wartime regime transition forces financial sector risk reassessment

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