HITBrier 0.400

Early-confirmed: NKE hit target below 36.48 on 2026-09-15. Current price: 36.22 (started at 38.40).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctNKE

Nike (NKE) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $36.48, 5% from $38.40 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.400.

Wartime risk-off regime, Fear & Greed 38, deep RSI capitulation across SPY/QQQ; consumer discretionary exposure to tariff/trade Fearon failure (US-China 0% bargaining range) pressures NKE's China-linked revenue base.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$36.48

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Nike (NKE) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce materializes from extreme oversold consumer-discretionary conditions consistent with capitulation-level RSI readings across the broader tape (target above $37.21, 4% from $35.78 at creation)

market78%

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Nike (NKE) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $36.48, 5% from $38.40 at creation)

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