United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.81, 5% from $111.38 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 41% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.164.

Confirmed Hormuz-driven crude premium (Brent sustained above $90, USO's confirmed >$130 move) raises jet-fuel input costs directly; DAL's parallel bearish thesis in pending predictions extends to peer carrier UAL under the same fuel-cost catalyst.

Probability

41%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.