MISSBrier 0.491

Data-resolved: GOOGL, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-15 through 2026-09-29. Target: below 331.92. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 338.41 (2026-09-29).

Resolved Sep 30, 2026

Market

SHORT correctGOOGL

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $331.92, 5% from $349.39 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 70% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-30. Brier score 0.491.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2915d ago
Made: Sep 15

Price Target$331.92

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $352.00, 4% from $338.46 at creation)

market27%MISS

GOOGL will close at least 3% above its September 30 closing price on at least one trading day by October 14, 2026 (target above $351.15, 3% from $340.92 at creation)

market56%HIT

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Alphabet (GOOGL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $331.92, 5% from $349.39 at creation)

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