Data-resolved: PYPL, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-07. Target: below 50.25. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 54.88 (2026-10-07).

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongPYPL

PayPal (PYPL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $50.25, 5% from $52.89 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.722.

QQQ technical capitulation (RSI 28.4, MACD histogram -3.621) with no fundamental catalyst per thesis implies continued high-beta tech/fintech downside exposure in the risk-off regime.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 79d ago
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$50.25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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