The correlation between Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will break above 0.80 within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-10 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-01. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium shows 53% escalation probability + China gray zone escalation strategy forcing commodity currency alignment + Australia commodity export beneficiary from Hormuz disruptions + wartime regime cross-asset correlation breakdown patterns

Probability

25%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

May 24128d ago

Made

May 10

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.