BlackRock (BLK) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1005.73, 5% from $1058.66 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 80% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Asset managers are AUM-sensitive to broad equity drawdowns; SPY/QQQ deep RSI capitulation (27.3/28.4) combined with the risk-off regime and confirmed weakness across MS/WFC/BAC financials supports downside in fee-based financial franchises.

Probability

80%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 16

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.