MISSBrier 0.057

Examined KOSPI (^KS11) daily closes from Mar 19-Apr 2, 2026. All trading days had closes above 5,000: Mar 19: 5,763.22, Mar 20: 5,781.20, Mar 23: 5,405.75, Mar 24: 5,553.92, Mar 25: 5,642.21, Mar 26: 5,460.46, Mar 27: 5,438.87, Mar 30: 5,277.30, Mar 31: 5,052.46. The KOSPI never closed below 2,400 during this period. Lowest close was 5,052.46 on Mar 31. Required: below 2,400 on at least 3 days, Actual: 0 days below 2,400. 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met. The market moved upward overall, contrary to predicted downward direction.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongKOSPI

KOSPI (South Korea) will close below 2,400 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as DPRK escalation probability increases ahead of Day of the Sun convergence with Mars-Saturn conjunction

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 24% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.057.

Derived from: North Korea Provocation Cycle shows DPRK chooses ICBM launch with US sanctions escalation (mixed equilibrium, 50% confidence). Actor intelligence confirms 'sustained aggressive posture through coordinated multi-missile launches'. Mars-Saturn Conjunction + Day of the Sun creates 4/5 intensity convergence.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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