MISSBrier 0.030

Web search for Iran nuclear breakout, Strait of Hormuz crisis, OPEC emergency production adjustments, and force majeure declarations from March 21-28, 2026 returned zero results within the evidence window. Required: at least 4 major oil producers making emergency announcements. Actual: 0 documented announcements. 0 < 4 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrongWTI

At least 4 major oil producing countries will announce emergency production quota adjustments or force majeure declarations within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalates beyond the current diplomatic brinkmanship equilibrium

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 17% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-28. Brier score 0.030.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis has 67% escalation probability with Iran choosing diplomatic brinkmanship + active wartime regime with Iranian strikes on US bases + OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting signal approaching + knowledge bank shows live OPEC production cut discussions already active

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 28185d ago
Made: Mar 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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