HITBrier 0.491

Fear & Greed Index dropped to 20 by March 16, confirmed by multiple sources including Tekedia reporting 'CNN Fear & Greed Index Stands at 20 Which Falls Under Extreme Fear Category' on March 16, and continued extreme fear readings through March 31 ('CNN Fear and Greed Index Sits in Extreme Fear Territory'). Timeline: March 19 + 14 days = April 2 deadline. Index reached 20 on March 16, well before deadline. Actual: 20, Required: <25, 20 < 25 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

SHORT correctCNNFear

Fear & Greed Index will drop below 25 within 14 days as wartime regime conditions override current neutral sentiment (50) amid 80% escalation probability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 30% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.491.

Derived from: Calibration shows 14 days timeframe has poor Brier score (0.353), but wartime regime detection overrides normal sentiment patterns. Current Fear/Greed at 50 (neutral) creates dangerous divergence with 80% geopolitical escalation risk. Multiple Fearon bargaining failures indicate structural instability that markets haven't priced.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

How forecasts are made and scored