MISSBrier 0.076

Data-resolved: INDA moved from 48.67 to 48.05 (-1.27%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: below 46.24. Target not reached. Low was 47.31.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT correctINDA

India equity ETF INDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $46.24, 5% from $48.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 28% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.076.

India-Pakistan Kashmir Bayesian mixed equilibrium (US surgical strikes / China accepts mediation, 70% confidence) combined with broader EM risk-off (EEM/FXI weakness already confirmed) supports foreign-outflow pressure on Indian equities that is not yet covered by any pending prediction.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$46.24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

INDA (India equity ETF) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as broad EM risk-off and dollar strength pressure emerging market equities (target below $46.13, 4% from $48.05 at creation)

market85%

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India equity ETF INDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $46.24, 5% from $48.67 at creation)

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