MISSBrier 0.152

Data-resolved: V moved from 367.21 to 367.98 (0.21%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: below 352.52. Target not reached. Low was 360.00.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongV

Visa (V) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $352.52, 4% from $367.21 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.152.

Wartime risk-off regime and Fear & Greed reading of 38 point to weakening discretionary consumer spending; payment-volume-linked names are a second-order transmission channel for the broader equity drawdown already visible in SPY/QQQ oversold technicals.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$352.52

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Visa (V) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $360.27, 4% from $375.28 at creation)

market78%

Visa (V) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $356.09, 4% from $370.93 at creation)

market81%

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Visa (V) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $352.52, 4% from $367.21 at creation)

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