Market
SHORTLRCXPendingLRCX will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $255.84, 5% from $269.31 at creation)
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-02.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian coalition stability is 30% with critical fracture risk; the same supply-chain contagion already confirmed on NVDA, MU, AVGO, ASML, SMH extends to semiconductor capital equipment names like LRCX.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 2in 3d
- Made
Price Target$255.84
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.