MISSBrier 0.197

HON daily closing prices retrieved for 2026-09-08 through 2026-10-07. Highest close was $214.14 on 2026-10-05; creation reference $209.61. Actual peak $214.14, required >$220.09; $214.14 < $220.09, therefore threshold NOT met (zero qualifying closes). Peak gain = (214.14 - 209.61)/209.61 × 100 = 2.16%, so direction up was observed but 5% not reached.

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctHON

Honeywell (HON) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $220.09, 5% from $209.61 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-14. Brier score 0.197.

Taiwan Strait confirmed US economic deterrence measures (export controls, tariffs against China per wire-confirmed FCC/Xinjiang actions) benefit defense-adjacent industrial suppliers with diversified non-China order books.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 77d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$220.09

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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