Data-resolved: NEE, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-17 through 2026-10-01. Target: above 83.58. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 76.35 (2026-10-01).

Resolved Oct 2, 2026

Market

LONG wrongNEE

NextEra Energy (NEE) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $83.58, 4% from $80.37 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 77% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-02. Brier score 0.594.

Probability: 77%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 115d ago
Made: Sep 17

Price Target$83.58

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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