MISSBrier 0.354

USD/PLN exchange rate data shows PLN strengthened during prediction period. Highest USD/PLN rate was 3.75170 on March 30, 2026, well below the 4.20 threshold. PLN never weakened beyond 4.20 per USD on any trading day from March 11-April 10. Actual: 3.75 max, Required: >4.20, 3.75 < 4.20 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction also incorrect as PLN strengthened rather than weakened.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongPLN

The Polish Zloty (PLN) will weaken beyond 4.20 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as European energy security concerns and NATO Article 5 readiness create pressure on Eastern European currencies with high defense spending obligations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.354.

Derived from: NATO Article 5 readiness scenario and European energy security concerns from multiple game theory outcomes. Poland has high defense spending (3%+ GDP) and energy import dependency. Base rate for major FX pair 1%+ moves: 63% per week. Compound probability: P(energy stress) * P(currency impact) = 0.85 * 0.80 = 0.68

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$4.2

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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