PANW (Palo Alto Networks) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $356.87, 5% from $375.65 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 78% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.610.

Technical mean-reversion risk following PANW's recent sharp rally (confirmed +5% move within prior 14 days), now vulnerable to a pullback as broader risk-off tech rotation and oversold QQQ conditions pressure high-multiple cybersecurity names.

Probability

78%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 245d ago

Made

Sep 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.