Natural gas futures (NG) will trade above $3.50 per MMBtu on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as European Energy Security scenarios drive alternative supply demand and seasonal storage concerns intensify

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.078.

Derived from: European Energy Security game theory showing 'EU chooses Accelerate renewables; Russia chooses Focus on Asian markets' at 70% confidence, creating supply chain adjustments that support natural gas pricing

Probability

72%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 8174d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.