UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $413.03, 4% from $397.14 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 31% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.093.

Risk-off wartime regime (Fear & Greed 38, 80% escalation risk score) typically drives defensive-sector rotation into healthcare; XLV strength is implied by the thesis's defensive posture even as SPY/QQQ sit at capitulation-level RSI readings.

Probability

31%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.