Gold miners ETF GDX will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $100.83, 5% from $96.03 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.176.

Derived from: confirmed GLD safe-haven breakout above $415 in prior window, sustained Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions), and Hormuz escalation probability of 67%, all reinforcing gold-sector demand; GDX carries beta to gold price moves and should outperform on continued wartime risk-off flows.

Probability

42%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.