HITBrier 0.163

USD/PHP price data from March 19-26, 2026 shows: March 19 close: 59.90542, March 20 close: 59.98357, March 21 close: 59.90758, March 22 close: 60.14166, March 23 close: 59.5583, March 24 close: 59.97547, March 25 close: 60.0891, March 26 close: 60.06129. All 7 trading days (March 19-26) closed above 58.00. Actual: 7 days above 58.00, Required: at least 3 days, 7 ≥ 3 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Market

LONG correctPHP

Philippine Peso (USD/PHP) will weaken above 58.00 on at least 3 trading days within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% creates regional currency pressure and semiconductor supply chain concerns trigger capital flight from ASEAN markets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 60% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.163.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Taiwan Strait Crisis escalation probability at 53% with fragile equilibrium (25% bargaining range). Philippines exposed to semiconductor supply chain disruption and regional spillover effects. Base rate for major FX pair moves 1.5%+ in a week is 71%.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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