Block Inc (SQ) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $74.33, 6% from $79.07 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.125.

Fintech/payment names carry elevated beta to risk-off equity conditions (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold with no fundamental catalyst per thesis); crypto-adjacent revenue exposure adds additional downside sensitivity given BTC's regime-adjusted volatility profile.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.