MISSBrier 0.168

VIX closes during evidence window (April 27 - May 4): April 27: 18.02, April 28: 17.83, April 29: 18.81, April 30: 16.89, May 1: 16.99. Target required VIX above 35 on at least 2 trading days. Actual maximum close was 18.81 on April 29. Actual: 18.81, Required: 35.0, 18.81 < 35.0 therefore threshold NOT met. Zero days above 35, needed at least 2 days. Direction also incorrect as VIX declined from ~18 to ~17 during period instead of spiking above 35.

Resolved May 4, 2026

Market

LONG wrongVIX

The VIX will close above 35 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets beyond current fear zone pricing of 38 F&G index

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-27 at 41% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-04. Brier score 0.168.

Derived from: Current Fear & Greed at 38 (fear zone) with wartime regime confirmed, 80% escalation risk score across multiple flashpoints. SPY and QQQ showing extreme oversold conditions (RSI 27-28) suggesting capitulation may trigger volatility spike. Red team challenge noted regarding oversold bounce potential, reducing confidence from technical baseline.

Probability: 41%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: May 4148d ago
Made: Apr 27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The VIX/VXV ratio will exceed 0.95 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime with Strait of Hormuz escalation (67% probability) creates near-term volatility spike relative to medium-term expectations

market13%MISS

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The VIX will close above 35 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as wartime regime financial stress tests interbank funding markets beyond current fear zone pricing of 38 F&G index

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