The Saudi riyal (SAR) will weaken below 3.80 per USD on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts reduce oil revenues while regional defense spending accelerates amid Iran escalation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 48% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.234.

Derived from: OPEC+ Production Decision Nash equilibrium showing Saudi cuts vs US SPR releases. Compound probability: P(Saudi cuts materialize) * P(currency pressure from reduced revenues) = 0.7 * 0.93 = 0.65. Red team challenge noted regarding inaction bias - this captures energy policy transmission to FX markets.

Probability

48%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.