PARTIALBrier 0.518

From 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-08: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) declined from $253.62 to $260.47 = +2.70% return. SPY declined from $678.27 to $676.01 = -0.33% return. Russell relative performance: 2.70% - (-0.33%) = +3.03%, meaning Russell OUTPERFORMED by 303 basis points. Actual: +3.03%, Required: -2.0% (underperform by 200+ bps), 3.03 > -2.0 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction incorrect - Russell outperformed instead of underperforming.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctRUT

Russell 2000 (RUT) will underperform S&P 500 by more than 200 basis points within 30 days as small-cap risk sensitivity amplifies during the March 31 Erev Pesach convergence window

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Intensity 5/5 Erev Pesach convergence + 9 convergent events creating volatility spike + small-cap higher beta characteristics during risk-off periods

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$500

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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