MISSBrier 0.069

Data-resolved: HII moved from 285.93 to 272.86 (-4.57%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 300.23. Target not reached. High was 293.00.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongHII

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $300.23, 5% from $285.93 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.069.

Derived from confirmed naval escalation dynamics in both the Strait of Hormuz (tanker seizures, mine incidents) and Taiwan Strait (PLA naval activity surge), increasing sentiment for naval shipbuilding and defense-adjacent orders.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2123d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$300.23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $289.91, 5% from $276.10 at creation)

market73%

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Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $300.23, 5% from $285.93 at creation)

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