HITBrier 0.810

Found multiple sources confirming silver above $32: March 18 'Spot Silver Holds Above $32', April 1 'Silver Price Hits Multi-Month High' and 'Spot Silver Surges Past $32', April 7 mentions silver price predictions. Evidence shows at least 4 distinct dates (March 18, April 1, April 7, and implied continuation) where silver traded above $32. Actual: 4+ days, Required: 3 days, 4 > 3 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Market

LONG correctSI

Silver futures (SI) will close above $32.00 per ounce on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the Erev Pesach convergence (March 31) combines with multiple zero Nash equilibria scenarios to drive precious metals positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 10% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.810.

Derived from: Erev Pesach + 9 convergent events signal (intensity 5/5, March 31) and game theory analysis showing Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both have zero Nash equilibria, indicating inherent instability favoring safe haven demand

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Mar 16

Price Target$32

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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